Former Mayor Tom McMasters and 2016 independent candidate for Congress - now a political commentator3 April 2018
Expect the Dow to hit 18,000 and possibly see 16,500 Although today the Dow is nearly 24,000 I recently sold all my mutual funds expecting to see the Dow drop to about 18,000 before July of 2019 but possibly as early as this summer. The reasoning behind this is simple, too many people invest in index funds. The market has been gaining steadily for a long time now giving the average investor a lot of confidence it will continue to rebound from some of these wild fluctuations that have occurred recently. However, there will come a time when a portion of those average investors decide it is time to keep some money in the bank instead of in stocks. The way index funds are structured these funds will have no choice but to convert their stocks into cash which will cause those indexes to go down. With too many people in index funds it will drive those indexes lower. Those of you that are savvy know that there are not very many Dow Index funds. I used the Dow because it is a index people understand and monitor but you should expect the S&P 500 and other popular indexes to see a similar decrease as the one I predict for the DOW.
There are other forces in the economy that will hurt the stock market specifically the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates preventing all the economic growth the tax cuts are suppose to provide so that the only thing we will see from the tax cuts will be the expanded deficit. Remember, when the economy is managed through monetary policy instead of through responsible tax policy only those companies with money survive so expect to see small businesses and entrepreneurs suffer.
If in the future I become your representative I plan to:
Make sure Congress does its Job - Does it bother you when you hear the Fed might raises interest rates because people are starting to get a little more in their paychecks? You've heard it! Your politicians tell you they want people to get good paying jobs but then they set up a system where they give the Federal Reserve a mandate to prevent you from getting a raise. When the Fed raises interest rates it lowers salaries for the working class while encouraging higher pay for top executives. It also prevents new start up entrepreneurial business from getting loans, forcing them to sell out to large companies on the cheap. If the country needs to slow the economy, what is a better way? Structure the tax code so that the money causing inflation comes out of circulation and then goes to paying off the national debt. When Congress does its job we can have a productive economy without suppressing the wages of those of us that work and without forcing small businesses out of the market place. Make Congress do its job! (extended article)
|Strengthen our Military - We would get 20% more force power with 10% less money if we trained military leaders to return unneeded funds to the taxpayer. Every acquisition program I've know has planned in an extra 30% into their budget just in case something goes wrong. Every operational unit is budgeted 5% more than they need to stay strong. Every military leader is trained that to return that money to the taxpayer is a sin. This leads to Generals and Colonels wasting 25% of their programs funds up front and then having to come back and ask the taxpayer for another 10% to finish the project.
Support for Wright-Patterson AFB by demanding fiscal responsibility and exceptional performance. In an attempt to save $40 million dollars base leadership decided to hire technicians and substitute teachers to replace Aerospace Engineers and Senior Program Managers. This led to over $800 million dollars in program delays and cost overruns. This is typical of the financial decisions made and despite attempts to sell mismanagement as a positive, hinders our performance and destroys our reputation.
Rein in Political Professionals - Congress is gridlocked because there are too many people that depend on campaign funds in order to make their living. Its no secret that the "best" professional campaign managers and advertising firms work for the candidates best able to pay their salaries. There is no loyalty to candidates or philosophy. They stay employed based on how much money they can get people to donate to their candidate. The easiest way to get people to donate is to get them riled up and angry. Stop the gridlock by insisting on civil conversation backed up by facts and reason. Hold onto your money and tell your neighbor to do the same. (extended article) View 60 Minute expose' Dialing for Dollars -- Viewers Call out Congress for "Dialing for Dollars".
Promote fiscal responsibility and family values - I believe the workers and businesses in this country are productive enough that we should be striving for households that live comfortably on single earner incomes; a workforce that doesn't depend on maternity and paternity leave so children get six weeks with a birth parent, but instead, one where one job pays enough to raise a family so that one parent can always be home, providing guidance to their child, while preparing for their next job. Making it possible, so that at a later time, they can become the primary income earner while the other parent remains at home to raise the children and acquire additional skills to improve on the next paid position they take. Revive the American Dream
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Mayor of Huber Heights and
Independent candidate for Congress
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The message in this video is good. The audio is bad. The batteries in my mic were going and unfortunately I haven't had time to re-shoot.